Members of the state’s Advisory Council on Revenue Forecasting are urging Moody’s Analytics to use“caution” and “be conservative” in preparing the December state forecast.
That’s because state revenues have fallen behind forecast – even the revised forecast issued in July.
"We are beyond the bottom, said Moody's analyst Dan White. "But we are not anywhere close to coming back to the record growth we saw during the oil boom."
A new state revenue forecast will be done in time for Gov. Jack Dalrymple to put the finishing touches on his executive budget request. That will be Dalrymple's last executive budget presentation.
Committee members pointed to budget allotments ordered by Dalrymple in 2016, and his request that state agencies submit 90 percent budgets. Lawmakers also met in special session in August. The budget stabilization fund was drained, and the Bank of North Dakota’s profits were used to help shore up the budget.
"We went through some real tough situations here this biennium," said House Appropriations Committee chairman Jeff delzer (R-Underwood). "We had things set so we could handle them. But this forecast, and the forecast done again in February or March -- we'd better be on the low side, because we don't have easy ways to handle this."
"I'd rather come back and say we can raise it, because we have more, than to figure out how in the world we're going to fill a gap," said House Majority Leader Al Carlson (R-Fargo). "We have to be careful here."
Moody’s will be lowering its forecasts for sales tax collections, drilling rigs, oil prices and oil production. The drilling rig number is important for the sales tax forecast, since most oil revenue is kept in special funds, and the average rig generates a lot of sales taxes.
The forecast will be presented to the Legislature in December, during its organizational session.
