ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:
The long civil war in Syria left the U.S. in a complicated position. American troops are still in Syria. But in Damascus, the U.S. Embassy has been shuttered for more than a decade. That makes it much harder for U.S. diplomats and intelligence officers working in Syria to figure out what's going on. NPR's Greg Myre is here in the studio to explain. Hi, Greg.
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Ari.
SHAPIRO: Explain how the lack of an embassy makes it harder for the U.S. to sort out what's happening in this emerging Syria.
MYRE: Yeah, there's just a lack of direct, face-to-face contact with those who may play key roles in the new Syria. Just one quick example - Secretary of State Antony Blinken is headed to neighboring Turkey and Jordan to talk about Syria, but he's not going to Syria because it's still too unstable. Now, all this dates back to the beginning of Syria's civil war in 2011. The following year, the U.S. and Syria broke off diplomatic relations, so the U.S. Embassy's been closed ever since. And the U.S. does have 900 troops in Syria, but they're in remote areas far from the capital. Now, I spoke with David McCloskey, a former CIA official. He worked on Syria for many years, and he talked about trying to put together a blueprint of what's coming next in the country.
DAVID MCCLOSKEY: I actually had worked on one. And the uprising started back in 2011, and I'm sure that paper has been rewritten and updated and, you know, rewritten about 10 times since. So they're probably taking that analysis and trying to put it in front of the president and the White House as soon as possible.
SHAPIRO: How do you even figure out what a new Syria is going to look like after half a century of one family ruling with an iron fist?
MYRE: Yeah, just a few days ago, Syria was one of the world's most notorious police states, a place where people were afraid to talk. You felt the presence of the security forces everywhere. Foreigners and particularly Westerners were viewed with great suspicion. And the Assads thought they could maintain this kind of control indefinitely. I spoke with former U.S. Ambassador to Syria Edward Djerejian, who met both the Assads. The younger Assad, Bashar, was training to be an eye doctor in London when he was brought back to rule the country. The ambassador described him this way.
EDWARD DJEREJIAN: He's an ophthalmologist without vision. And I think that encapsulates who he is, an ophthalmologist without vision.
SHAPIRO: And the ambassador said that after meeting with Bashar al-Assad a couple times, it was clear to him that he would never relinquish the stranglehold on the country.
MCCLOSKEY: Does he think the U.S. or other outside powers can or should help Syria rebuild itself as a stable country?
SHAPIRO: Well, Syria has gone from this obsessive security state to a place where border crossings are open, people are in the street speaking freely for the first time in their lives. But Djerejian said the U.S. shouldn't try to take a leading role in Syria as it's done in other Mideast countries.
DJEREJIAN: Given the background of U.S. intervention in countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq, it's not a very positive playbook. Perhaps that's the wisest policy, is not to intervene directly.
SHAPIRO: But won't other countries like Russia and Iran continue pushing to remain active in Syria?
MYRE: Yeah, Ari, that's certainly the expectation. And that's what the U.S. is trying to figure out. One big question, for example, will Russia be able to keep its military bases? In particular, a naval base and an air base, both on the Mediterranean coast. The Russians use these bases to bomb the rebels and Syrian civilians throughout the war. So the rebels may not be inclined to let the Russians stay, but this remains an open question. The U.S. satellite company Maxar released images that showed Russian naval vessels have pulled out of their port in Tartus. So far, Russia has not moved war planes and helicopters from the air base, which is just a bit further up the coast.
SHAPIRO: Are U.S. government officials likely to return to Syria anytime soon?
MYRE: You know, Syria will have to stabilize before the U.S. will reopen the embassy or have any kind of large open presence. You are seeing journalists, aid workers and others rush into Syria, including many Syrians who've been refugees for years. David McCloskey, the former CIA official, said he'd like to go back as a civilian and see a Syria without Assad. You know, in the meantime, he wrote a well-received spy novel a couple of years ago about the place called "Damascus Station." But don't expect to see any real-life American officials there anytime soon.
SHAPIRO: NPR's Greg Myre. Thank you.
MYRE: Sure thing, Ari. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
