A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
The fall of Syria's longtime president prompted celebrations by many of its people. It's safe to say the same event led to dismay in the capital of Iran. The longtime enemy of Israel and the U.S. relied on Syria as one of its allies in a bid for power across the Middle East. Now, the government's collapse amounts to Iran's latest disaster. NPR international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam reports.
JACKIE NORTHAM, BYLINE: It's hard to underestimate how important Syria was to Tehran. It was a crown jewel in Iran's so-called access of resistance, which is a network of Iranian-backed militias aimed at undermining U.S. and Israeli power in the Middle East.
AFSHON OSTOVAR: Syria was the center of the access of resistance - geographically, at least.
NORTHAM: Afshon Ostovar is a specialist on Iran and its proxies at the Naval Postgraduate School. He says Tehran propped up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad with Iranian-backed fighters when his regime was threatened. Ostovar says in return, Syria allowed Iran to set up a critical land bridge to Lebanon.
OSTOVAR: Which allowed Iran to supply Hezbollah primarily with advanced weaponry, missiles, drones, rockets, these sorts of things.
NORTHAM: But with anti-government rebels in control of Syria now, that strategic route to Lebanon is most likely off-limits to Iran. Ryan Crocker is a former ambassador to Syria. Speaking at a recent event at the Middle East Institute, he said this is a huge setback for Tehran's long-term goals in the region.
RYAN CROCKER: So does that mean that the era of Iranian-fomented terror and insurgency in the region is over? No, absolutely not by a long shot. But clearly, their overall strategy has been greatly weakened.
NORTHAM: It's also been a profound turnaround for Iran in just a short time. Ostovar, who authored "Wars Of Ambition: The United States, Iran, And The Struggle For The Middle East," says a year ago, Iran controlled politics on the ground in Iraq, in Syria and much of Lebanon and Yemen.
OSTOVAR: But in the last two months, three months, all of that has been reversed. Hezbollah has been heavily degraded by Israel. And now Iran's entire position in Syria has been taken away.
NORTHAM: Israel has also degraded Hamas, assassinated senior Iranian officials, and pounded Iran's air defenses. Even so, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, struck a defiant tone during a speech earlier this week.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
ALI KHAMENEI: (Speaking non-English language).
NORTHAM: Khamenei warned not to underestimate the Iranian regime, that it and its allies would grow stronger under pressure. But it could take years for Iran to build up its proxies again.
HANIN GHADDAR: It's going to be extremely difficult, extremely expensive.
NORTHAM: Hanin Ghaddar is an expert on the region at the Washington Institute. She says it will take a long time to rebuild Hezbollah to what it was.
GHADDAR: It's a big investment, and the reward actually is not very big. Hezbollah will not be able to defend or threaten Israel anymore. It's over.
NORTHAM: Ghaddar says if Iran feels cornered, it may try to use its nuclear program as leverage. Earlier this month, the U.N.'s chief nuclear inspector said Iran was dramatically accelerating its enrichment of uranium, close to the levels needed to produce a weapon. Ghaddar says Iran could either test a weapon or negotiate another nuclear deal with President-elect Donald Trump.
GHADDAR: Trump wants to try make a deal with the Iranians. So they might be thinking that probably, if they want to save themselves and really, like, cut their losses, they have to consider that.
NORTHAM: The Iranian leadership could also be worried about a threat from its own population, says Ostovar.
OSTOVAR: If you're in Iran right now and you are seeing prisoners freed from the political prisons in Syria, you can't help but pray for the day that that happens in your own country, right? And I think they know that. So I think they're probably terrified at the moment.
NORTHAM: For a country that's long relied on proxies to fight its wars, experts say Iran is looking very alone right now.
Jackie Northam, NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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