SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Germany votes tomorrow at a critical time for Europe with concern over Russian aggression, and in Germany, worry over economic stagnation, anger over immigration, and a surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany Party, or AfD. That party has downplayed the horrors of Germany's history under Nazi rule, and Vice President JD Vance says he met with the AfD's leader. Constanze Stelzenmuller joins us now. She's director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Thank you so much for joining us.
CONSTANZE STELZENMULLER: Thank you for having me on. It's a pleasure and an honor.
SIMON: As you see it, what's at stake for Germany with this vote?
STELZENMULLER: I think this is the most consequential election I have ever voted in. And it's consequential because this is about Germany's ability to form a stable government, and it is about Germany's ability to be a good partner in NATO and the European Union, a good neighbor and to be a functioning part of the European Security Order. So that's not exactly a small charge.
SIMON: And what about the stakes for Europe, as you see them?
STELZENMULLER: Well, you know, I'm not sure whether they were ever the good ol' days, but people used to call for Franco-German leadership of Europe, which has become a bit of a tired cliche. We're now 27 members of the European Union and 32 members of NATO, and I think nobody wants a Franco-German motor. But the truth is, with an economy as powerful as Germany's and with the enormous power and size differences between Germany and most of its neighbors, it does get noticed when we're not pulling our weight. And so what this is about is preserving our ability to pull our weight and to play a responsible role given our power.
SIMON: Vice President Vance gave a speech at the Munich Security Conference, which, I think it's fair to say, caused a lot of consternation.
STELZENMULLER: Indeed.
SIMON: Let me quote. He told European leaders, "if you're running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you." What's been the effect of those remarks and Mr. Vance's meeting with the AfD leader?
STELZENMULLER: Yeah. I think perhaps we should start with an explanation of what the AfD is, shouldn't we? Because, yes, the consternation is very real. I don't think any pronouncement by an American official in my lifetime has sent such shockwaves throughout the country.
So the AfD is one of Europe's most overtly right-wing, extremist parties. It is pro-Russian, pro-Chinese, it is anti-NATO, anti-supporting Ukraine, and also, frankly, it has always been anti-American, right? It's now pretending it isn't, but that's just not true. And you know, at least as importantly for the ordinary German, it wants to change the nature of the German constitutional order, which I would like to remind American listeners America helped us bring about in - after World War II.
SIMON: What about Mr. Vance's central point? - which seems to be Europe, you're on your own.
STELZENMULLER: I think what JD Vance, the vice president, is perfectly right - is to say to Europeans, listen, America has other preoccupations around the world, and it is past time for you to play a greater role, pull a greater weight in the transatlantic alliance. And I think given the Russian behavior not just in Ukraine, where Russia everyday bombards Ukrainian cities, everyday people are killed on the frontline and under these bombardments, but also Russian disinformation and sabotage in Europe and in my own country, Germany, at levels that we haven't seen since the Cold War, and maybe not even then, right? Europeans and my country are scrambling to increase their defense spending and up their defense industry.
And I think that the Vice President's speech and, even more, the president's remarks about Russia and, if you will, upgrading Russia as a partner to this administration and downgrading Ukraine, insulting its elected president, that has really, I think, made Europeans realize that they might indeed be on their own.
SIMON: And what are the implications for Ukraine with this vote?
STELZENMULLER: I think if current polling is an accurate predictor of the election outcome, you'll have a conservative chancellor in coalition with the Social Democrats and possibly also the Greens. All three of those parties agree on supporting Ukraine, on loosening government spending in what is very clearly a national emergency, on stopping Russian attempts at intimidating Germany and Europe. They agree on playing a greater role in NATO, playing a greater role in the European Union. And I think they would all hope to have a good relationship with the Trump administration.
SIMON: Constanze Stelzenmuller of the Brookings Institution. Thank you so much for being with us.
STELZENMULLER: Thank you for having me on.
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