LEILA FADEL, HOST:
President-elect Donald Trump reportedly told Russia's Vladimir Putin not to escalate the war in Ukraine. The Washington Post says Trump used a phone call last week to remind Putin of America's sizable military presence in Europe. NPR has not been able to independently verify that call, but Trump did campaign as a peace candidate, promising to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. We called up a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and former special envoy to Ukraine, Kurt Volker, to talk about the possibilities.
I want to start with that promise about Ukraine. This is something that the Democrats have invested heavily in, seeing this as an existential threat to the world order. Trump has said he would end the war quickly. I just want to play a little bit of what he said, speaking at a town hall in May.
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DONALD TRUMP: I meet with Putin. I meet with Zelenskyy. They both have weaknesses, and they both have strengths. And within 24 hours, that war will be settled. It'll be over.
FADEL: Is that possible?
KURT VOLKER: Since saying that on the campaign trail, he also met with President Zelenskyy in September in New York. He said there needs to be peace, and it needs to be a fair piece, which is a good comment, recognizing that, you know, Russia is the aggressor here. And then he has repeatedly, repeatedly said that this would never have happened if he was president, which is a way of portraying Biden as weak and that he would be strong. So I think what he would do is want to reestablish a position of strength, to tell Putin to end the war and if Putin doesn't do that, then it's going to get worse for Putin. And it may be good timing as well. Russia is in a much weaker position than they let on publicly. Inflation is very high. Interest rates are very high. And the military effort is in weak shape. As we saw earlier this year, they can't both attack Ukraine and defend Russian territory at the same time.
FADEL: So the Ukrainians don't want annexation of their land, right? And the Russians don't want to give that land up.
VOLKER: Right.
FADEL: And Biden has sanctioned them, put pressures in all kinds of different ways. What would be different about Trump that would get these leaders to the negotiating table?
VOLKER: Yeah. Getting Zelenskyy to a negotiating table is not an issue. They don't want this war. This has only been about Russian attacks on Ukraine. The challenge is to get Putin to agree to end the war.
FADEL: Do you think Putin has a different view of Trump than he does of Biden? I mean, I just think about the way that Trump has professed in the past his admiration for Putin.
VOLKER: As I see, he doesn't want to demonize the people he has to deal with. He wants to keep open that space that he can cut a deal while putting in place policies that try to shape the playing field. And there were some very tough policies on Russia in his first term. I think because of that, Putin plays along with that and doesn't demonize Trump - says nice things about Trump. But if you look at some of the other things that the Russians say or do, they also are duplicitous, and they'll say one thing and do another.
FADEL: Now, Trump has also promised to end the war in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon. And I want to get a sense from you of what Trump might do that is different than what we've seen over the past year from Biden.
VOLKER: The main difference is to hold Iran directly accountable for the actions of its proxies.
FADEL: Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, the Yemeni, Lebanese, Palestinian groups that it backs in funds.
VOLKER: Yes, yes. But we have messaged to Iran consistently now we need to de-escalate. We need to avoid escalation. Well, this is read by Iran as a green light. That means they don't have anything to worry about. And so they can continue to feed their proxies, to threaten attacks on Israel, to threaten attacks on international shipping - and they do. So Iran is completely undeterred. This, in turn, gives a signal to Israel you can't count on the United States.
FADEL: But I will ask, though, Ambassador, I mean, at every turn, this administration has provided the weaponry and the support for this war. So I'm actually kind of confused about the support.
VOLKER: It's very similar to Ukraine.
FADEL: Yeah.
VOLKER: We provide all of this military support. We provide the ammunition, bombs, etc., and we tell them, don't do this, don't do that. That has been a - particularly in the Middle East, that approach has been escalatory by accident.
FADEL: What would the direct responsibility that a Trump administration might put to Iran?
VOLKER: I think it would be the threat of strikes on Iranian assets from the Indian Ocean. And I would think we would look at their nuclear facilities and we would look at their oil refining and energy sector facilities, which is where they get their revenue from.
FADEL: And so for both Russia and Iran, it sounds like what you're saying is that these countries would see this administration as an administration that would carry out on a threat of something like a direct attack.
VOLKER: Yes. And that is the whole point of deterrence. I don't think - you know, going back to your very first point, President Trump always talks about peace. He wants to reestablish peace, but you have to get, as he says - and he's quoting Reagan - peace through strength. And that peace through strength occurs when you're willing to do something and your adversaries believe it.
FADEL: Ambassador Kurt Volker, thank you for joining us for your insights and for your time.
VOLKER: My pleasure. Thank you.
(SOUNDBITE OF ART MUSIC'S "JANUARY") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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