North Dakota Mineral Resources director Lynn Helms says the oil industry consensus is – 2017 will be a better year for the industry.
But Helms says it won’t be robust.
"Still less than 50 drilling rigs (in the Bakken)."
Helms says by 2018, the industry will likely start adding drilling rigs back to North Dakota.
"By 2019 and 2020, it should be back to the races."
And that means production will grow.
"Our expectation is that as we move into the 2019 and post-2020 era, and we get back to drilling, we're going to grow production to almost 1.9 million barrels a day," said Helms.
Right now, the state produces about 1.1 million barrels a day.
Helms says the challenge for companies will be to again find workers for the oil patch.
"We're pushing really hard for the local communities, to make sure we don't run into another housing crunch," Helms said. "That would just add to the problem of getting workforce back here. It would be a whole lot easier if there's an apartment waiting for them, or a crew camp room. And we don't have to start over in that area."
Helms says virtually everyone in the industry believes oil will be coming back – it’s a question of when. And he says the state needs to be prepared.
Meanwhile, Helms says work Is underway between his office, the state Commerce Department and the oil and gas industry – to look at a potential polyethylene plant in North Dakota.
Helms says Bakken natural gas is high in ethane – and he says it’s highly valued. He says the ultimate goal is to have a plant here – to make plastics.
"The difficult thing is, the one or two people who have been looking at it are looking at enormous scale plants," Helms said. "They're looking at Gulf Coast-size plants. And we're not quite to where we can support that."
Helms says others are looking at the issues and variables – to see what’s feasible.
"It may require a smaller-scale polyethylene plant,," Helms said.
Helms says the variables include how much ethane will be in North Dakota’s natural gas production, moving forward.