Forecasters are predicting a "top ten" flood in the Red River Valley this spring.
The National Weather Service has issued an updated flood forecast that includes the last two winter storms to impact the region. Hydrologist Greg Gust says there is a 5 percent chance the Red River at Fargo could crest at 41.4 feet - which would top the record flood of 2009. He also says there is a 10 percent of nearly equaling the record. One thing is for certain - Gust says the Red River Basin runoff has jumped significantly, and a moderate to major flood is nearly guaranteed. He says there are a number of things to consider in this forecast - fall moisture was high, streamflow is normal, frost is deep, and both snowpack and water content are high. Gust says the spring thaw is also running late - but there is some good news on that front.
"So the good news is - the next week to two week may be our ideal slow thaw cycle here, with high temperatures in the lower to middle, maybe upper 30s at some point, but low temperatures dropping below freezing to keep things under control."
Gust says there is also some bad news...
"Really, at the end of March into early April, climate models are indicating we could still see a significant cold dip at that time. And there's certainly the possibility we could get a batch of stormy weather in at some point here."
Gust says the risk for spring rains is also up.