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Dr. Michael Patrick Cullinane Transcript
Main Street
And then there were five. That's the stage for tonight's Republican presidential debate. The stage has thinned, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum will be watching from the sidelines. We'll discuss now with my guest, Dr. Michael Patrick Cullinane. He's a celebrated historian of American politics and an award winning author and a professor of US history. And the Rob and Melanie Walton chair of Theodore Roosevelt Studies at Dickinson State University. Dr. Cullinane, welcome back to Main Street.
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
Pleasure to be back, Craig. Thanks for having me.
Main Street
Following debates in Wisconsin and California, now the Republicans go to Miami. Listeners can watch that debate beginning at 7:00 tonight on NBC. And we want to know what to expect. And I want to start our discussion today with polling that came out in The New York Times over the weekend, with President Trump just pulling away and looking strong and unbeatable, not only against his Republican foes, but also maybe against President Biden in a general election. But last night, abortion rights fueled big Democratic wins and hopes for 2024, said the New York Times. What's your takeaway from the current state of affairs, if you will, within the Republican Party? Well,
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
Well, there's so much news to sift through, and I think that you're absolutely right to bring up this polling data that The New York Times has done with Siena College. The big standout story is that Trump is leading in almost all of the swing states. By at least four points, but almost in all cases outside the margin of error, with the exception of Wisconsin, which Biden seems to be winning. But that would mean that based on that polling, that Donald Trump is going to walk away with the 2024 election, and that's what the headlines are saying.
However, I do think there's real problem with polling in America. We've seen for the last three cycles of presidential elections that those polling numbers are way off. So my question to you, Craig, and I guess to listeners is can we trust the polling data? Do we think it's accurate? I mean, have people given up their their landlines, which is how polling data is still accrued? No, I don't know. I mean, my feeling is, is that this data is a year out and possibly as erroneous as the past three cycle.
Main Street
My brother's been directly involved in New Hampshire politics, helped host the first in the Nation summit just a couple of weeks ago. And he describes a whole different landscape of presidential campaigning. It's in coffee shops. It's within groups of 5 or 10, not these massive groups or television groups. And it's these little groups. And I think the same thing holds true for Iowa. And it does make me wonder if national polling is different from these connections, that these candidates try to create almost a handshake at a time.
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
Yeah. The national polling figures put Ron DeSantis in second place and Nikki Haley close behind him in terms of the Republican nomination. But I think what we're seeing in the individual states is that there's big discrepancies, right? Chris Christie is polling very well in New Hampshire and Northeastern states, and that skews the picture of who might actually walk away with the nomination, because, of course, New Hampshire goes first, Iowa goes first South Carolina, then Nikki Haley's state. So I think it's a real difficult position that the media is put in where they've got these poll numbers that they need to report because it's nationwide news. But in reality, the local data is often contradicting those national numbers.
Main Street
We're going to get to the debate still in just a minute, I promise. But what is your take on President Trump's appearance in civil court this week? It seems to me there's never fallout for him on a negative side when these events happen. Is that really the case?
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
Well, I read an article last week about this, and it struck me as being prescient in the sense that Donald Trump has been indicted. I can't even count how many times now. Right? It's overwhelming. The fraud case in New York is particularly overwhelming. His daughter is going to be testifying in that case. But the thing for me is, is is there a difference between an indictment and a conviction? And that's what that article posed. Is there a difference between Donald Trump being accused of something and using that as a sort of political tool to get further ahead in the polls? Is it different when he actually gets convicted of a crime? I think it will be. I think it's hard to shrug off a conviction in the same way that you can call an indictment a witch hunt, right? It's been proven a jury of your peers is proven that you're guilty of something that's a lot harder to shake off. So we'll see if he's able to do that. I mean, we do know that he has a base that is almost impenetrable. So I can imagine Donald Trump running for president as a Republican and getting 40 to 42%, almost no matter what he does. But the margins are fine here. And so if he does get convicted of these crimes, that's where he could lose those independent and middle ground voters.
Main Street
I think another good question, though is: will a criminal trial be held prior to the election? I would say now I doubt that that might happen.
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
I think you're probably right about that. There are so many spinning plates with all this, though. And as the allegations start to get more serious, particularly around this fraud case in New York, and as his family members are drawn into the media circus that it has become, I think that could damage his reputation. And all of this really still depends on how the candidates within his own party are going to shake out. I mean, is DeSantis going to continue to decline, or is he going to be able to galvanize those same voters that want Trump?
Main Street
Well, a popular Iowa governor, Kim Reynolds, endorsed Ron DeSantis this week. Will that make a difference?
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
It'll certainly make some difference. But in terms of the endorsement race, you see, Donald Trump has got something like 300 and some odd endorsements and Ron DeSantis has a dozen or so. It's or maybe a little bit more than that now, but it's still not really going to move the needle. I mean, and we're seeing that in all the polling in Iowa, as long as the field is this big. And obviously, Craig, I got to give you a big shout out for being correct about Mike pence. He's dropped out of the race, which you called, and I said it'll probably take until January. So kudos to you for that call. But until more people drop out of the race, I don't think we see a chance of anyone emerging over the Trump parapet.
Main Street
Nikki Haley certainly debates well, she's proven that. I think in the first two debates, she's had no real watershed moments yet. Is it getting too late for her?
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
I don't think so. I think Nikki Haley is probably the one who's maintained the momentum best out of any of the Republican candidates, the the likes of DeSantis has. I wouldn't say he stumbled in the debates, but he's been forced to restart on two occasions. That's what his campaign is calling it. You know, a restart and reset. But at what stage do you say the debates aren't working for him? And also the likes of Vivek Ramaswamy. I mean, he's not really emerged in the second debate as the same sort of force that he did in the first one, and I suspect he'll probably continue to wither as as the sort of loudmouth antics don't really resonate beyond the first shout. So Haley, I think, is maintaining her momentum, which is a positive for her. Rick Scott I mean, where is Rick Scott? I mean, this guy is absolutely absent from all of the debates. How can he continue and how can he continue to justify pulling votes away from his other South Carolinian?
Main Street
Haley, I think it'll be interesting tonight if the Republican candidates go after themselves, or will they be more like Chris Christie, who I think held his guns back a little bit in the second debate relative to Donald Trump? Who do they go after tonight to make a difference? Do they go after each other, or are they going to turn their guns on the president?
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
That's a really good question. I think because the debating landscape has just become this almost farcical charade of people yelling at each other. And that's what we've seen in the first and second debates. But I think arguably that's what we've seen in all of the presidential debates since 2008. And there's a big article in the New York Times this morning about the rule change in debating that allows the combatants to go at each other, to look at each other, to take each other straight on. And that's what's been happening in these Republican debates. It's not been kind of match up, match off about the issues and where they disagree. Instead, it's been like WWF wrestling match where they have to throw every insult that they possibly can at all of the contestants. And so I can't I can't see how this third debate is going to change anything. And the real people that they need to win over are Iowa and New Hampshire voters. And Iowa voters have really clear issues around agriculture, industry, universities and higher education that need to be addressed. And unless they're speaking to those things, as well as the abortion issue, which clearly was a major, major factor in the elections last night, if they don't talk about those things, I think they've lost the crowd.
Main Street
The role of the moderators. Michael, I thought Kristen Welker singled herself out in the last presidential debate as the moderator who created a worthwhile debate with President Trump participating in the debate. She is also now with Lester Holt and one other tonight for NBC. Do you think that the moderators tonight can give us a better debate without a free for all that we've kind of seen in the last two debates?
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
I mean, I would hope so. I think that's their job. I don't think it's always easy, and I can't place all of the blame or accolades on a moderator for doing a good or bad job, because the outcome is largely a result of the candidate. It's not all down to the moderator, but I do think a good moderator is able to choke off an excessively long answer and to direct the candidates back to the question at hand. That's about the best they can do. But how do you stop the likes of Ramaswamy and Christie, you know, fighting or, you know, or also some candidates not having any voice at all? I mean, like if Tim Scott can't have his voice heard, how much of that is the moderators fault as well? I mean, I do think that that's, that's partly due to the moderator. But like I said, I don't think this is all down to the moderators or not. It's become a sort of pugilistic sport between the candidates, and a lot of it is down to their energy and not the energy of the moderator.
Main Street
Let’s talk about Chris Christie. His direct messaging about Trump has been the most, I think, consistent and loud of the Republican candidates that we are considering in this cycle. But his message really has fallen on deaf ears. Why is that?
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
It's a good question. And I have a really simple answer for you, Craig. It is the Trump party. Now, the Republican Party is on board with Trump. And if you look at the polling that FiveThirtyEight put out, Nate Silver and his crowd, they put out polling about who resonates with Republicans the most. Chris Christie is at the bottom of that pile. And what's interesting about Christi is that it's almost certainly because he's taken on Trump and he's been so vocal about his opposition to Trump. But interestingly, he's doing well in exactly those places that are swing states like New Hampshire that don't see themselves as although New Hampshire has this reputation for being a really libertarian state, they also don't see themselves as entirely Trumpian. They are much more centrist and fiscally conservative, but socially maybe a little bit more liberal than a lot of states and places like that. Chris Christie will do well. However you move to states in the Midwest and the West where Republican voters don't have the same values or approach to the party. And it's a different story. Christie is, you know, in single digits in those places. So he's a divisive figure. And the divisive issue remains Trump. So in those places where Trump is really popular, Christie just has almost no chance at all.
Main Street
And for those of us in North Dakota, speaking of messages that have failed to gain traction, our governor, Doug Burgum, will be watching this from the sidelines. Why hasn't his centrist, maybe moderate message also failed to take hold? And can we have a moderate candidate ever, at least in the near future?
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
I think we're seeing maybe the green shoots of some moderation, but it almost needs to go a full trump tilt before you can return back to moderation. In terms of Governor Burgum, I don't know the reason why. I think for a lot of reasons, Governor Burgum should appeal to a lot of voters, particularly in places like Iowa and New Hampshire. But, you know, there's a lot of ways that presidential politics is just a popularity contest. And as a result, it's the loudest voice that gets the most attention. I mean, why in the world is Ramaswamy polling higher than than Governor Burgum? You know, it's not because he's a responsible political candidate who has, you know, a genuine stake in some of the issues he talks about. It's because he's loud and obnoxious. And, you know, that's kind of what American politics is, has turned into to a certain extent. And I don't just mean that this is a Republican phenomenon as well. If you'll remember, Joe Biden told Donald Trump to shut up, man, in his debate. So, you know, there's a …
Main Street
“back of the woodshed. “
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
Exactly, Craig. That's it. This is what our politics have descended into, where issues and particularly issues that Governor Burgum has been really strong on, like energy security. I mean, that's something that I think a lot of Americans agree on. And he has been the most outspoken proponent of energy security within the Republican field. It's just kind of gone nowhere because he's not shouting loud enough and being obnoxious enough.
Main Street
What are we going to be talking about around the watercooler tomorrow, Michael? Oh,
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
Wow, that's a great question. I, I don't know what to expect because I think, as you've said, we've seen these candidates now twice before. They have under and overwhelmed in varying degrees. I think we're going to be, I suspect, talking about who's going to drop out next. And going back to your point about Mike Pence that you made so well about about him dropping out, I think we need to see more candidates drop out in order for there to be a genuine challenge to Donald Trump. And my view is now the only viable candidates that are there. And maybe this is what we talk about at a later stage. My view is that Haley, DeSantis and Trump are the only candidates with a real chance to win this nomination.
Main Street
We won't see them debate anymore, though, will we?
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
Well, that's all to play for. I guess it depends on how fast the field withers and if Donald Trump is willing to debate. But you know, my question for anyone that I was talking to at the water cooler tomorrow would be why in the world would Donald Trump debate anyone? I mean, he's so far ahead in the polls, and this has been, if I'm honest, it's been such a bungled process whereby the party has allowed all these candidates to flourish. And it only means one thing that Donald Trump is going to win the nomination.
Main Street
My question is, why in the world do we allow a candidate to not participate in debates?
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
Well, I do understand that to some extent. And if I can play devil's advocate for a moment, I do think that some of the fringe candidates tend to move a party in a direction if they pick up steam. I mean, you could think about candidates like Governor Burgum, who's talking about energy security. And although he hasn't pulled an awful lot, I'm pretty sure that his views on energy security are going to resonate with the party. I said this to you before he might be running for Secretary of Energy right. But that's not a bad move. If you're if you're a fringe candidate, it allows you to move the policies and the issues in a direction that you think are important.
Main Street
Michael, it'll be an interesting debate to watch tonight. Again, listeners can watch the debate at 7:00 central time on NBC. Let's talk about you and your recent appointment to the role of professor of history and the Lowman Walton Endowed Chair of Theodore Roosevelt Studies at Dickinson State University. Congratulations.
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
Thanks, Craig. Thanks very much. I love Dickinson, actually. I've been there. I was in Dickinson ten years ago for a symposium, and I fell in love with the Badlands. I remember the smells more than anything, the sagebrush and the juniper berries. And I guess I just couldn't get it out of my head.
Main Street
What do you see yourself contributing to the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library?
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
Well, it's a huge project. It's a huge undertaking. And I don't know if anyone is aware, but this is this is going to be the biggest sort of center of gravity for anything Theodore Roosevelt related. For quite a while. O'Keefe, who is the CEO of the Presidential Library Foundation, has done a remarkable job in fundraising, conceiving the project and now executing it. I mean, ground has been broken in July 2023, just this year, and we're looking at July 4th, 2026 to open the doors. It is going to be monumental. I mean, that is literally monumental.
Main Street
That'll be a special day not only for North Dakotans but also for the country.
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
Absolutely. And I think, you know, in the same way that Mount Rushmore drew people to South Dakota, my hope is that the presidential library is going to draw hundreds of thousands of Americans to North Dakota. And I think, you know, the special place out in western North Dakota, the Badlands. And, you know, its connection to Theodore Roosevelt is an important part of the national story. It really is. Dr. Michael Patrick Cullinane is a celebrated historian of American politics and an award winning author and professor of US history at Dickinson State University.
Main Street
Thanks again for your comments on Main Street. Dr. Cullinane will, I'm sure, visit with you again.
Michael Patrick Cullinane, DSU Historian
Thanks again. Craig.