STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
The military rulers who took control of Myanmar in a coup four years ago plan a general election in phases starting this month. They're hoping the world will accept the vote. The backdrop is a yearslong civil war that's left thousands dead and millions displaced. Michael Sullivan reports from neighboring Thailand.
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MICHAEL SULLIVAN: The junta's propaganda machine is working hard to convince voters to participate in the polls, enlisting prominent actors to sell the idea that its, quote, "multiparty democratic general election," end quote, will restore stability to the war-battered country.
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SULLIVAN: But some actors weren't on board, and they paid for it.
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SULLIVAN: That's state-run television announcing the arrest of several actors under a sweeping new law banning what the military calls interference in the election process. In this case, the actors' social media posts criticizing the election effort. Human Rights Watch says nearly 100 people have been detained under the new law for questioning an election the military admits won't even be held in many contested or rebel-held areas.
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ANTONIO GUTERRES: Is there anyone that believes that there will be free and fair elections in Myanmar?
SULLIVAN: That's U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres speaking to Singapore's Channel News Asia at a Southeast Asia summit in late October.
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GUTERRES: It is quite obvious that in the present situation of conflict and taking into account the records of human rights of the military junta, it's obvious that the conditions for free and fair elections are not there.
SULLIVAN: But they're happening anyway, denounced by rights groups and Western governments as a sham - an effort to create a parliament dominated by the military's proxy party, the same party that was savaged by Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy in the last election in 2020. The NLD is banned this time around just in case. Suu Kyi remains in prison. And the military has been pushing hard in recent months to retake territory lost to the rebels to bolster its election chances. Morgan Michaels is a Myanmar analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
MORGAN MICHAELS: After a couple of years of catastrophic losses, the military has begun to regain the initiative and is pushing back opposition forces in key strategic areas across the country.
SULLIVAN: And it's gotten help from neighboring China, one of the few countries to back the election. Beijing doesn't like the military or its coup but dislikes the chaos that's followed even more. A civil war that's threatened China's huge infrastructure projects in Myanmar - gas and oil pipelines - and its geopolitical ambitions. Yun Sun directs the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. She says China sees Myanmar's military as a necessary evil.
YUN SUN: You could call them an ulcer or tumor in the country's domestic politics, but it has been there, and it's not going anywhere. And the Chinese will not tilt the balance of power in a way that the military will be forced out.
SULLIVAN: In fact, it's done just the opposite, pressuring ethnic armed organizations in the north to cede territory captured from the regime and, even more importantly, telling the largest and best-equipped ethnic Chinese militia to stop arming other rebel groups or else. And then there's the fatigue factor among some volunteers fighting the military, whose optimism - almost five years in - is starting to fade, says analyst Min Zaw Oo.
MIN ZAW OO: One of the indicators is how many of those fighters going into Thailand and moving to Chiang Mai for better livelihood.
SULLIVAN: Some, but not all. Rebel commander Ko Ta Mar (ph) was a doctor before the coup. He says he's frustrated with the opposition's lack of direction and unity but still wants the military out of politics for good.
KO TA MAR: (Through interpreter) If you see the crisis in the country as a disease, the election is like injecting a steroid into a patient. Pain can be eased temporarily, but it will only be worse in the long term. That's why we reject the elections.
SULLIVAN: But for many civilians also tired of nearly five years of war, economic hardship and displacement, the elections could offer the promise of at least some stability, even if they hate the military and its brutality. It's a low bar, but one the military is gambling might be high enough to restore some order domestically and ease its diplomatic isolation abroad.
For NPR News, I'm Michael Sullivan in Chiang Rai. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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